Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.307749 33.796769 37.808029 42.831138 49.058107 56.674594 66.949406
2025-06-01 25.260744 29.599436 35.044599 42.621714 53.337661 68.779790 94.671620
2025-06-08 21.881425 26.523860 32.722769 42.065812 56.796277 81.489773 133.915344
2025-06-15 19.524653 24.269761 30.911375 41.582817 60.055671 95.824767 195.165733
2025-06-22 17.813012 22.587980 29.530781 41.304460 63.467421 112.968478 303.736297
2025-06-29 16.305906 20.974567 27.953611 40.279501 65.077458 127.787477 475.162710
2025-07-06 15.731913 20.633903 28.248081 42.501402 74.221064 173.307755 1624.992118
2025-07-13 14.761508 19.575196 27.218309 42.027555 77.135914 204.565711 10404.527573
2025-07-20 14.062086 18.859875 26.653815 42.320818 82.180631 256.839686 NaN
2025-07-27 13.470490 18.254455 26.191926 42.713670 87.810194 332.990672 NaN
2025-08-03 12.882456 17.601360 25.564307 42.618475 92.053244 425.071099 NaN
2025-08-10 12.290105 16.894474 24.762837 41.983722 94.327000 522.961206 NaN
2025-08-17 11.841402 16.401023 24.316819 42.125773 99.757062 741.478763 NaN
2025-08-24 11.380147 15.855086 23.720563 41.809835 103.473600 1046.870275 NaN
2025-08-31 10.930576 15.300418 23.057874 41.221280 105.909960 1491.460523 NaN
2025-09-07 10.530878 14.807209 22.471425 40.731788 108.683048 2372.227645 NaN
2025-09-14 10.186055 14.388665 21.995455 40.452672 112.473506 4973.463813 NaN
2025-09-21 9.797312 13.873101 21.288775 39.457653 112.211692 9101.291896 NaN
2025-09-28 9.733861 13.922829 21.712061 41.601807 131.026723 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.439540 13.545896 21.235806 41.143344 134.357881 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.228083 13.306603 21.025461 41.426026 143.213148 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.037466 13.094861 20.855683 41.805026 153.665813 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.821800 12.827036 20.547296 41.713049 160.756621 NaN NaN